Are Hurricanes Getting Worse in Atlantic Canada?
A few years ago, in the lead-up to a hurricane's arrival in Nova Scotia, I found myself thinking back to childhood. I didn’t have any memories of hurricane preparations growing up - at least not before Hurricane Juan in 2003. A friend of mine, who grew up in Florida, had a very different experience. That conversation pushed me to look into the history of hurricanes in Atlantic Canada. It turns out, Hurricane Juan was the first hurricane I ever experienced. Sure, there were tropical storms before that, but Juan really changed the game for Nova Scotia. Since then, it seems like we’ve had them more frequently - though still not as often or as intensely as other parts of the Atlantic hurricane catchment.
Looking at the Data
When I started digging into the data, I looked at three main areas: how often hurricanes happened each year (frequency), how strong they were (intensity), and how many deaths were reported. What stood out most was that, for the most part, casualties per storm have gone down in recent years. Another thing that stood out was how the southern part of the Atlantic hurricane catchment has been dealing with intense storms for quite some time. Major hurricanes are happening more often now.
One interesting piece of trivia I came across: the first Category 5 hurricane was observed in 1924. Exactly 100 years later, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, showing up at the end of June and into early July. It was also only the second time a Category 5 storm had ever been recorded in July.
How Hurricanes Are Categorized: A Quick Guide
Before I jump in any further, I thought it might be helpful to explain how we classify hurricanes. We do this using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which ranks storms from Category 1 (least severe) to Category 5 (most severe) based on sustained wind speeds.
| Category | Wind Speed (km/h) | Potential Damage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 119–153 | Very dangerous winds will produce some damage | 2 | 154–177 | Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage |
| 3 | 178–208 | Devastating damage will occur |
| 4 | 209–251 | Catastrophic damage will occur |
| 5 | 252+ | High percentage of destruction; uninhabitable areas |
Keep in mind, this scale doesn’t include rainfall, storm surge, or flooding, which are often the deadliest aspects of a storm. Additionally, the category of a hurricane can increase and decrease throughout its existence.
A Shift in What Reaches Us
When we narrow the lens to Atlantic Canada, we’re not seeing more storms in terms of sheer numbers. But the storms that do reach us are becoming more intense. That shift started around 1999, and since Juan hit in 2003, we’ve seen more hurricanes make their way here than in earlier decades. As a result, it’s created a lot of confusion and misinformation.
Every year, we’re given a seasonal forecast, and each year, it sounds more dire. But many of those storms never reach us. They usually lose strength and get downgraded to post-tropical storms or depressions once they hit our colder waters. Still, if you look at the southern Atlantic, where storms tend to form and intensify, those predictions are pretty accurate.
Mixed Messaging and Regional Response
This mismatch - between the forecast and our lived experience - can make us a bit complacent. That said, many people in the region have at least one memory of being caught off guard, and that motivates some to take preparations seriously. Juan and Fiona are still top-of-mind for a lot of Atlantic Canadians. But climate science, by its nature, evolves. The baseline keeps shifting as we gather more information. That’s how science works.
At the same time, global inaction on climate change means we can expect things to keep getting worse. All of this - combined with the difference between the Atlantic hurricane season overall and our local experience - can lead to mixed messages. Some people over-prepare; others under-prepare.
Revisiting Our Past Storms
If you talk to any Nova Scotian with an interest in storms, you’ll probably hear about the Saxby Gale of 1869. It hit Nova Scotia and New Brunswick as a Category 2 hurricane and resulted in 37 deaths. In 1990, Hurricane Bertha made landfall as a tropical storm. At Peggy’s Cove, six people were injured while watching the waves. Ocean safety there is an ongoing issue, regardless of the weather, so it’s notable that those were the only injuries reported for that storm.
A lot of the storms that reach us have already caused major destruction elsewhere. Newfoundland, historically, gets the tail end of more storms than the other Atlantic provinces, though this seems to be shifting somewhat. In the last 100 years, 49 named storms of all categories have reached Atlantic Canada. Of those, 20 have occurred since 2003 - when Hurricane Juan hit.
New Benchmarks: Juan and Fiona
The Saxby Gale was long seen as a "hundred year storm" - kind of benchmark. Juan is another key reference point, and Fiona has more recently been added to that list. But now that hurricane season is changing, we’re seeing more of these intense storms more frequently than every 100 years. The Saxby Gale still ranks in the top 10 deadliest hurricanes in Canadian history. It had a storm surge of up to 2 metres, which caused most of the destruction.
Interestingly, most Nova Scotians don’t know much about the Saxby Gale. They’re far more likely to bring up Juan or Fiona - or one of the many times we were told to prepare for a storm and it didn’t amount to much. But the value of Juan and Fiona is that people experienced them directly. They remember what it was like. And in the case of Juan, it caught many people off guard. So while some remain complacent, not everyone is. And those who’ve been through a serious storm are quick to remind others how lucky they were if they weren’t affected.
Ocean Temperatures and Storm Strength
Ocean temperatures are rising, and faster than we expected. This creates better conditions for hurricanes to form and for major storms to take hold. What we saw with Fiona is that stronger hurricanes are making it to our region. That storm was devastating, even though it could have been worse. And based on the current projections, these kinds of storms are more likely in the years ahead.
Policy Gaps and Resilience
More frequent and intense hurricanes also has implications for policy. We need to consider stronger hurricanes in our building codes. The minimum standard won’t be good enough moving forward, and the pace of changing them in these makes it a risky gap. We’re improving when it comes to communications, preparedness campaigns, and recognizing when evacuations are needed - though not everyone feels the need to follow them, which is another issue.
There's also an opportunity to shift our thinking toward more holistic, community-based planning. When communities become more resilient together, the shock of extreme weather events can be less overwhelming. As storms become more intense and damages grow more costly, it’s likely that restoration and adaptation will become higher priorities. Insurance companies are already adjusting how and where they offer coverage, which will eventually influence political will.
One example: not allowing new building permits in coastal areas would be a relatively simple and impactful step. Yet, it hasn’t been widely adopted. And the rollback of the Coastal Protection Act in Nova Scotia was a missed opportunity. That decision sparked ongoing frustration, even over a year later. What’s missing is clarity and consistency from leadership. Leaving decisions up to those with the money to ignore climate risks isn’t sustainable. In the end, we all pay the price for those choices.
Who Is Left Behind?
What worries me most is the inequality of it all. Vulnerable communities are often left out of these conversations, if they’re even invited. But they’re the ones hit hardest by climate impacts. If insurance becomes too expensive or simply unavailable, they’re the ones left without a safety net. It shouldn’t take a tragedy to bring people on board, but I fear that’s what it will take. That’s why focusing on community resilience is so important. We can do better - and eventually, we will.
The Cost of Inaction
The cost of inaction is clear. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), Hurricane Fiona remains the most costly extreme weather event ever recorded in Atlantic Canada. As of January 2023, the damages were estimated at over $800 million. By contrast, Hurricane Juan caused about $275 million in damages. The full lessons from Fiona are still being assessed. From what I saw, warnings and preparations were in place, and the storm was just as severe as expected. Utilities like Nova Scotia Power and PEI’s Maritime Electric had an enormous task in the aftermath. Some areas were without power for over a month. While that’s not ideal, it makes sense given how remote and small some of those communities are - especially in contrast to the surrounding damage.
Fiona was a reminder - just like Juan - that we are at the mercy of nature. And we can be caught off guard more easily than we’d like to admit.
Tracking the Trends
In my lifetime, I’ve seen predictions shift dramatically. Early forecasts suggested about 10 hurricanes per season, with 2–3 becoming major hurricanes. Now, we’ve had years where we’ve gone beyond the full alphabet of named storms. Before Juan, we’d usually see 0–3 major hurricanes per season in the Atlantic. Now, 5–7 is becoming more common.
2020 was a standout year. It brought 51 named storms in the Atlantic. Canada got off relatively easy, with only one - Tropical Storm Teddy - making landfall. But of those 51, 14 were hurricanes, and seven were major hurricanes. Historically, the average number of named hurricanes per year was around 17–18. Since 2020, that number has been closer to 30. That makes 2020 a bit of an outlier - but a uusefulpoinr of comparison.
Hurricane Season May Be Shifting
We still use the same timeline for hurricane season, but that could change. Mid-August to the end of October remains prime time for hurricanes in Atlantic Canada. That doesn’t mean we won’t see them earlier - or that we shouldn’t be prepared year-round.
We’ve been fortunate in Atlantic Canada. Yes, we’ve had damaging storms, but rising ocean temperatures could change that luck. The best advice? Pay attention. Be proactive. Listen to emergency management. History shows us we’re prone to being caught off guard - and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen again.
Sources
Insurance Bureau of Canada. (2023, January). Hurricane Fiona: Canada’s 7th costliest weather event. IBC News Release
National Hurricane Center. nhc.noaa.gov
Canadian Hurricane Centre. weather.gc.ca/hurricane
