When the Big Ones Hit: Pondering how Atlantic Canada will Deal with Future Major Hurricanes

In the wake of Hurricane Milton, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about the what ifs. What if a hurricane of that magnitude where to hit Atlantic Canada. What would that look like?

It’s inevitable that Atlantic Canada will face hurricanes at Category 3, 4, and even 5. We have been fortunate that most of the hurricanes that find their way into our territory are typically post-tropical storms by the time they reach us. But we have had full-blown hurricanes strike the region, as well. Hurricane Fiona is probably the most devastating in recent history, and let’s face it - Canadian history. So, what would happen if a hurricane like Helene or Milton were headed for a direct hit to Atlantic Canada?

Where is Atlantic Canada?

Atlantic Canada is found on the east coast of Canada. It contains four provinces: New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island (PEI). Newfoundland and PEI are islands, while Nova Scotia is home to Cape Breton Island.

Nova Scotia is also connected to New Brunswick by way of the Chignecto Isthmus. This area is highly vulnerable to climatic shocks, such as flooding and erosion stemming from intense storms. There is already a lot of concern for this area, as it could disconnect Nova Scotia from the rest of Canada. However, it is highly political and efforts to address these concerns remains a challenge at all three levels of government.

Labrador, which is half of Newfoundland and Labrador is tucked away along the north-eastern coast of Quebec.

The Atlantic Canadian provinces are known for their sparse populations, despite over 2.4 million people living there, according to the 2021 Census. This makes up approximately 6.5% of Canada’s overall population of roughly 37 million. To put this into perspective, Ontario has a population of 14.2 million or 38% of the total population of Canada.

It is of importance to note that Atlantic Canada is not the same as the Maritimes. While Atlantic Canada consists of four provinces, the Maritimes refers only to New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and PEI.

Will our infrastructure hold up?

One thing to keep in mind is that our infrastructure is not equipped to withstand the strongest of hurricanes. Since we don’t typically receive hurricanes beyond a category 1 (most arrive as a tropical or post-tropical storm), there hasn’t really been a need to update the building code to reflect the potential for more devastating hurricanes.

The image below is an excellent depiction of how each of the categories would impact a building, such as a home.

If this visual isn’t enough to help you understand the severity of these major storms, perhaps the video below from the National Hurricane Centre will be more useful.

Bottom-line, the higher the hurricane is rated, the more devastating the impacts. In all scenarios, they aren’t something to take lightly!

To Evacuate or Not

In the days leading up to Hurricane Milton making landfall with Florida, there were numerous social media videos posted from people in the presumed line of direct hit. They were either showing their journey to evacuate, or they offered rationale for staying put. Most felt the former was the most appropriate course of action. However, for the majority of the latter, the comments lacked a lot of nuance and empathy. Most especially, these videos shed light on a more serious problem: the inequity of disaster relief and preparedness.

I can’t imagine how difficult the decision to leave must be. Even though the rational side of my brain knows anything left behind is just stuff, the emotional ties would give logic a run for its money!

What’s the way forward?

I don’t have any answers, only ponderings without any sort of resolve. I think that’s okay, though. For me, the fun of working within the field of climate change is its unpredictability - and how impossible it is to “solve.” It’s complexity forces a necessary and enjoyabe creativity that many other fields lack (at least from my experience).

So to conclude, major hurricanes reaching Atlantic Canadian provinces are inevitable. For now, it’s easy to deny, but the reality is these storms are getting stronger and more frequent, and our ocean waters are simultaneously heating up.